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20120928
20121006
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, steven engler, global head of a g-10 fx strategy at citi. thanks for joining us again. want to come to some of your u.s. dollar calls. you've been making the point that on the economic data in the u.s. dollar moves have been consistently moving hand in hand of late in the past they used to move in the opposition direction. so do you put this down to the qe-3 factor? >> in part, although it's been in place even when qe-3, or when quantitative easing hasn't been a major driver, a major force in the market. you have to realize that when you take a look at correlations over long periods of time, the dollar is kind of the currency of despair. you buy it when the economy is weak and you pretty much sell everything else. i think qe-3 is kind of making it easy for the euro and the europeans to look good right now because much of the world is terrified about the balance sheet expansion that they expect to occur and the flood of liquidity. so i think that there's a bias in the market. you know, to sell dollars broadly. in that circumstance, you look at reserve managers, you look at investors,
around this is head of developed markets rate strategy at citi. thanks for coming along. so what are you expecting from the ecb, when will they move next? >> i think today will be a monday event. the market is not pricing any in move. if there's going to be a change in policy, it will happen probably towards the end of the year and then most likely forecast also another change in the first quarter much next year. so it's all about expectations for the future. >> how do you trade around those expectations? >> the way to trade around it is to carry. the ecb has carry rich. you have on libor a quite steep structure. and so what we expect our baseline scenario to profit from long positions there. >> let's put this into the context of what's going on. we have the central banks and developed markets, the bank of englands as well today, most people agree that we won't get anything from the bank of england until november, december. any thoughts there? >> i think with regards to the fmoc minutes, what we'll get is most likely some sort of sense for unhappiness with regards to the measures that ha
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